Manchester City trail Arsenal by just 3 points with a game in hand. A full match-by-match prediction, current standings, and everything at stake in one of the closest title races in Premier League history.
Category:Premier LeagueUpdated:April 21, 2026
Live Standings
Manchester City Premier League title race Arsenal Pep Guardiola Mikel Arteta 2025-26 EPL
The Premier League title race of 2025–26 has produced one of the most gripping finales English football has ever seen. Manchester City vs Arsenal — despite a challenging mid-season — have clawed their way back into contention with a run of form that Pep Guardiola’s most devoted supporters dared not imagine back in January. With Arsenal holding a slender 3-point lead and Manchester City vs Arsenal carrying a precious game in hand, the trophy could go right down to the final whistle of the final day.
Current Premier League Standings (Matchweek 33)
Live Table — Top 5
| # | Team | W | D | L | Pts |
| 1 | Arsenal FC | 21 | 7 | 5 | 70 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 20 | 7 | 5 | 67 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 16 | 10 | 7 | 58 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 17 | 7 | 9 | 58 |
| 5 | Liverpool FC | 16 | 7 | 10 | 55 |
Manchester City vs Arsenal‘s 2–1 victory over Arsenal on April 19 was the statement moment of the entire season. It confirmed that Guardiola’s side are every bit as capable of winning the title as their north London rivals. The 3-point gap flatters Arsenal slightly — Manchester City vs Arsenal are very much in the driving seat on momentum.
67
Man City points
70
Arsenal points
+1
City game in hand
85%
City win prob. vs Burnley
Title Race Win Probability
Title probability estimateBased on Opta & prediction models
Manchester City ~55%
Arsenal ~40%
Other ~5%
Bookmakers currently give Manchester City vs Arsenal an implied probability of around 55–60% to lift the trophy. Prediction models such as Opta’s 10,000-simulation engine lean slightly toward Arsenal historically, but the recent Manchester City 2–1 win has shifted sentiment.
If both teams win all of their remaining matches, the championship will come down to goal difference.
— The Athletic analysis, April 2026
Manchester City’s Remaining Fixtures & Match Predictions
Manchester City vs Arsenal have six games remaining — one more than Arsenal. Every result matters enormously, not just in points but in goals scored and conceded. Here is a fixture-by-fixture breakdown of what lies ahead for Guardiola’s men.
Matchweek 34
Burnley vs Manchester City
Predicted: 0–4. Win probability: 85.4%
Matchweek 35
Everton vs Manchester City
Predicted: 0–1. Tough Monday night fixture.
Matchweek 36
Manchester City vs Brentford
Predicted: 1–1. Brentford always competitive.
Matchweek 37
Bournemouth vs Manchester City
Predicted: 1–2. Vitality will be hostile.
TBC
Manchester City vs Crystal Palace
Predicted: 2–0. Palace may rest players.
Matchweek 38
Manchester City vs Aston Villa
Predicted: 3–1. Final day decider.
Why the Burnley fixture is crucial for Manchester City
The upcoming Burnley vs Manchester City vs Arsenal clash — with Manchester City vs Arsenal holding an 85.4% win probability — is not just about three points. It is a golden opportunity for Guardiola’s side to build goal difference at a time when every goal could separate the two title challengers on the final day. Burnley are bottom of the league with just 20 points and have conceded more goals than any other side in the division. Manchester City‘s attack has averaged nearly two expected goals per game since February, making this the most favorable fixture on the entire run-in.
Arsenal’s Remaining Fixtures
Matchweek 34
Arsenal vs Newcastle United
Win prob: 65.7%. Must-win at the Emirates.
Matchweek 35
Arsenal vs Fulham
Predicted: 2–1. Marco Silva’s side tricky.
Matchweek 36
West Ham vs Arsenal
Predicted: 2–2. Could be Arsenal’s banana skin.
Matchweek 37
Arsenal vs Burnley
Predicted: 4–0. Must go for goals.
Matchweek 38
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal
Predicted: 1–2. Eze vs his boyhood rivals.
The Key Battle: Goal Difference Could Decide the Title
Should Manchester City vs Arsenal and Arsenal end level on points — a genuine possibility given the fixture lists — the Premier League title will be decided by goal difference. This makes every scoreline in every remaining game critically important. Manchester City vs Arsenal thumping Burnley 4–0 while Arsenal struggle to a 1–0 win over Newcastle could swing the balance significantly.
If both teams finish with the same number of points, the championship may be decided by goal difference, which means every match result becomes important.
— Premier League analysis
Predicted final standings if both teams win all remaining games
| Pos | Team | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
| 1 | Manchester City | 25 | 8 | 5 | 78 | 32 | +46 | 83 |
| 2 | Arsenal FC | 25 | 8 | 5 | 75 | 30 | +45 | 83 |
In the scenario above, Manchester City vs Arsenal win the title on goal difference — by a single goal. This is why Guardiola will demand his players go for goals in every single match from here to the end of the season.
Watch: Manchester City vs Arsenal – Extended Highlights
Manchester City 2–1 Arsenal | Full Match Highlights | Premier League
Premier League Official YouTube · Matchweek 33 · April 19, 2026
Watch ↗
The official Premier League YouTube channel publishes full match highlights within hours of every game. You can also catch extended highlights of Manchester City vs Arsenal‘s recent fixtures, including the decisive 2–1 win over Arsenal, on the Premier League’s official channel. For live match streams, Sky Sports, BT Sport, and NBC Sports (US) hold the broadcast rights.
Pep Guardiola’s Tactical Masterstroke
One of the most underappreciated qualities of Pep Guardiola as Manchester City vs Arsenal manager is his ability to peak at the right time. Since their loss in the Manchester derby in January, Manchester City vs Arsenal vs Arsenal have posted a record of 12 wins, 4 draws, and 0 losses in all competitions. That is the sort of form that wins titles — and Champions Leagues.
Guardiola’s Manchester City vs Arsenal side have shown remarkable resilience in managing injuries to key players. The returns of Rodri, Ruben Dias, and John Stones have fortified a backline that now looks as secure as any in the league. The attack, led by a rejuvenated Erling Haaland, has been relentless in front of goal — and it is this combination of defensive solidity and attacking efficiency that makes Manchester City vs Arsenal the narrow favorites for the title.
Manchester City’s form since the January derby
12
Wins
4
Draws
0
Losses
16
Games unbeaten
Can Arsenal Hold On? Arteta’s Biggest Challenge
Arsenal’s nine-point lead in February was the largest advantage any team has held at the Premier League summit since the Invincibles era. The fact that Manchester City vs Arsenal have closed that gap to three points is testament both to City’s brilliance and Arsenal’s wobble. Mikel Arteta’s side found their form again against Manchester City vs Arsenal — Martin Odegaard was sharp, Kai Havertz showed leadership, and the high press returned with authority. But the concern for Arsenal supporters is the away fixture at West Ham and the final-day trip to Crystal Palace, where Eberechi Eze will be playing against the club that shaped him.
I’ll believe Arsenal can secure three points in a title-defining match only when I actually see them do it.
— Premier League pundit analysis
The Eberechi Eze Factor
One of the most compelling subplots of this title race is the final-day fixture: Crystal Palace vs Arsenal. Eze, who grew up as an Arsenal fan before joining the club as a youngster only to leave, will face his former club — and possibly his boyhood side — on the day the Premier League title could be decided. If Arsenal need a win at Selhurst Park and Eze is in inspired form, it could be the most dramatic conclusion in recent memory.
The narrative writes itself. Manchester City vs Arsenal, meanwhile, face Aston Villa at the Etihad — a side that may well have just played a European final — giving Guardiola’s Manchester City vs Arsenal a potentially significant advantage in freshness on the final day.
Key Takeaways
- Manchester City trail Arsenal by 3 points with a game in hand after their 2–1 win on April 19.
- Manchester City’s win probability vs Burnley (next fixture) stands at 85.4%.
- Goal difference could separate the two sides if level on points at the end of the season.
- Manchester City are unbeaten in 16 games since the January Manchester derby.
- The predicted final scenario has Manchester City winning 83–83 on GD by a single goal.
- Arsenal’s fixtures at West Ham (MW36) and Crystal Palace (MW38) are the biggest danger points.
- Both teams have five remaining league fixtures, with Manchester City having one extra game.
- Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City side are the slight betting favourites at approximately 55–60%.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many points does Manchester City need to win the Premier League?
Manchester City currently have 67 points. If Arsenal win all five of their remaining games, Arsenal would finish on 85 points. Manchester City would need to win all six of their remaining games to finish on 85 points and match them — in which case goal difference would decide the title.
What is Manchester City’s next Premier League fixture?
Manchester City’s next Premier League fixture is away at Burnley, scheduled for April 23, 2026. Manchester City hold an 85.4% win probability according to current models.
How does goal difference work in the Premier League title race?
If two clubs finish level on points at the end of the Premier League season, the title is awarded to whichever team has the superior goal difference (goals scored minus goals conceded). If goal difference is also equal, goals scored is the next tiebreaker.
Yes. Manchester City have been the dominant Premier League side in recent years.
They won multiple consecutive titles, including the 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, and 2023–24 seasons, making them one of the most successful runs in modern Premier League history.
Yes. Manchester City have been the dominant force in English football over the past decade under Pep Guardiola, winning multiple Premier League titles. The 2025–26 season represents another chance for Manchester City to add to that trophy haul.
Where can I watch Manchester City’s remaining Premier League games?
In the UK, Manchester City’s remaining Premier League fixtures are broadcast on Sky Sports and TNT Sports. In the US, matches are shown on Peacock and NBC Sports. Full highlights are available for free on the official Premier League YouTube channel shortly after each match.
Who is the top scorer for Manchester City this season?
Erling Haaland continues to lead Manchester City’s attack as the side’s primary goal threat. His goals-per-game ratio for Manchester City remains among the highest in the Premier League, and his form in the final months of the season will be pivotal to Manchester City’s title hopes.
Conclusion: Manchester City Are Ready to Win the Title
This is the closest Premier League title race in years, and Manchester City vs Arsenal are right in the thick of it. Three points behind with a game in hand, an unbeaten run stretching back to January, and a fixture list that — while challenging — includes the kind of tough-but-winnable away days that Guardiola’s Manchester City vs Arsenal sides have historically thrived on.
Arsenal still have every chance. Their squad is deep, their manager is tactically brilliant, and their home form has been exceptional. But the momentum unmistakably belongs to Manchester City vs Arsenal. After their 2–1 win over Arsenal, Guardiola’s men know exactly what they need to do. In a race this tight, that clarity might just be enough.
Whether it ends with Manchester City vs Arsenal lifting the trophy on goal difference, or with Arsenal celebrating a first title in the post-Invincibles era, one thing is certain: this Premier League season will be remembered for a very long time.
